Political Risk: Latin American Markets Brace
Investors are troubled much less by the politics of Latin
America than they fret over governance in Washington and Europe. However, even Brazil conceals risk that is not priced in.
Santander Brazil Interview: Backing a Challenger
After a 14 billion real IPO, Santander Brazil is flexing its muscles to take on Bradesco and Itaú Unibanco. Credit cards and corporate banking will drive growth.
MAN OF THE YEAR: Leading Mexico's Global Champion
Brazilian CEOs get all the attention but a quiet Mexican manager obsessive about quality has created a true global champion. Bimbo CEO Daniel Servitje is our Man of the Year.
Vale CFO Interview: Planting Fresh Brazil Seeds
Vale’s push into fertilizers gives it a new domestic line of business with promising long term growth. It may have found a way to appease both investors and politicians.
COMMENT: Where’s the Upside?
Investors who are new to Brazil may be excused for thinking it is a one-way bull run, especially after last year’s 75% stock vault.
PEOPLE: BNP Makes LatAm Push
BNP Paribas is growing the LatAm business, which it expects to be increasingly lucrative in the medium term.
DEBT: Investors Take Stock
The pace of new bond issuance was brisk at the start of 2010, with a shift towards more corporate and bank borrowers making up for an absence of quasi-sovereign issuers compared to previous years.
EQUITY: Lowering the Bar
The region’s first two IPOs of the year, both from Brazil, failed to meet their stated pricing targets by sizable margins, kicking off what looked like a sour start to 2010.
STRUCTURED FINANCE: Seeking a New Platform
A new and significant twist has developed in the Petrobras platform financing story.
M&A: Starting Out Strong
Latin America started the year with a bang on the M&A front. As of early February, deals worth more than $25 billion had been announced, according to Dealogic.
Finance Minister Rankings: Trial by Fire
Chile beats Mexico when LatAm finance ministers are ranked for their handling of last year’s crisis. Unwinding stimulus measures and containing inflation are the main challenges.
Chile Elections: Codelco Stake on the Block?
Sebastián Piñera, the billionaire president-elect of Chile, faces stiff resistance to privatizing 20% of Codelco, the world’s biggest copper producer. He will move very carefully.
Samurai Bond Market: LatAm Issuers Return
Sovereigns have returned to Japan for diversification at an attractive rate. Corporates are another matter and the scope of the Samurai market remains to be seen.
Loan Market: Brazilian Lenders Step Up
Foreign lenders to LatAm companies face fewer opportunities owing to a hot bond market and Brazilian banks’ ravenous appetite. Hopes are pinned on big ticket M&A.
Peru Railroad Investment: Funds Spring Up
New infrastructure funds are springing up to finance billions of dollars in Peruvian railroads. The government hopes to also see investment from commodity producers.
Brazil Elections: Battle of Bureaucrats
Brazilian elections will likely feature two competent, slightly dull bureaucrats. However, behind workaday exteriors lie tough personalities with ruthless political instincts.
Brazil Equity: Rally Hits Headwinds
A game of two halves is predicted for Brazilian equity, which started 2010 on shaky ground. New issuance is scheduled for the first half, but volatility will follow.
Brazil Structured Finance: Slow and Steady Progress
With the credit crisis behind it, Brazil’s small but solid structured finance market is poised to expand again. Residential real estate is becoming a reality.
Brazil Infrastructure: New Model Hopes Fade
The World Cup and Olympics offer a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Brazil to engage the private sector and foreign banks to update infrastructure.
Colombia Infrastructure: Funds Accumulate
Colombia’s multiple infrastructure dreams look closer to becoming a reality as all the talk of the last few years moves closer to action.
Colombia Capital Markets: Off Peak, But On Track
This year may not see the record-breaking flow of local bonds Colombia enjoyed in 2009. But brisk activity is expected as liquidity persists and investors continue to seek assets.
Mexio Infrastructure: On The Road Again
The infrastructure pipeline is refilling as projects reduced or postponed during crisis get back on track. The emergence of CCDs and participation of Banobras help stimulate financing.
Mexican Issuance: Staging a Comeback
Mexico’s overseas debt market has roared back to life, while corporate peso debt is still waiting for quasi sovereigns to bring it back from the brink. Beware rising interest rates.
GUEST COLUMN: Back to the Future?
IDB shareholders should use capital replenishment discussions to consider a re-alignment of their ownership. Borrowing countries need to recover a bigger voice.
SPECIAL PROJECTS: The Battle for Argentina's Central Bank
Martín Redrado was the second longest-serving governor of Argentina’s central bank since it was founded in 1935.
SPECIAL PROJECTS: Liquid, Solid but Short-term
The Argentine banking system is awash with liquidity and has stood firm through the global crisis but it struggles to find a path to growth