Miami Bound DCM Bankers Stay Optimistic

The LatAm cross-border DCM markets have been all but shut since early December, but heading into IDB annual meetings between issuers, investors and financiers, there are some glimmers of hope. The markets are taking bad news – such as UBS and Lehman writedowns, and Bernanke’s testimony this week – without spiraling further downwards. Pricing is nowhere near back to normal, as one DCM banker points out, but if enough participants believe we have seen the worst, a new issue could yet emerge to jump start the market. Petrobras – fresh from a roadshow – is just waiting to issue, and any of the better sovereigns or high-quality state entities like Pemex could be around the corner if a few days of calm open up. And LatAm non-financial corporate issuers face a big spike in maturities in the second half of the year, according to Moody’s, so they will be looking for windows. Some $21bn of corporate debt comes due in LatAm through 2009, the agency says. The big question for all borrowers is who goes first, and how much they have to stump up in a market reopening premium.