Peru Seen Leading Regional Growth: JPM

Despite its high exposure to falling commodity that has contributed to its first trade deficit since 2003, Peru’s economy is well grounded and its growth may lead the region in 2009, says JPMorgan. The shop sees GDP expansion ending the year at 5.3%, its highest country forecast within LatAm. With reserves of $34bn representing a quarter of total GDP and an expected fiscal surplus of $1.1bn, Peru’s finance ministry may succeed in sticking to its 6% GDP target for next year. A new trade agreement with China and expected FDI of $5bn should bolster that bid, says JPM. The shop recommends overweight positions in two Peruvian companies: Credicorp, the financial conglomerate that owns BCP, and Buenaventura, the mining company. With Credicorp, investors get exposure to domestic growth, while a recent drop in gold may produce a buying opportunity for companies like Buenaventura that are exposed to the precious metal as the holidays begin.