Right wing candidate Ivan Duque led the the first-round in the Colombian presidential election this Sunday with 39% of the votes while the representative from the left Gustavo Petro was chosen by 25% of the 19.6 million Colombians that showed up to cast a ballot, a little more than 53% of eligible voters according to the Colombian electoral authority website.
A former governor of Antioquia, centrist Sergio Fajardo came in third place but less than 2 percentage points below Petro – and beating all candidates with voters in the capital, Bogotá.
Despite the large margin between Duque and the next two candidates, Colombians have to go back to the polls on June 17 as the country’s electoral rule requires 50% of votes for any candidate to win out right on first round.
At stake on this election is not only Colombia’s economic model going forward but the fate of the peace deal reached by current president Juan Manuel Santos with the FARC movement to end 50 years of civil war.
In a report before the voting, Fitch Rating’s analysts highlighted that structural factors are weaker in Colombia compared to peers but that “gradually improving security resulting from the peace process could improve Colombia’s governance and human development indicators”.
Colombia currently holds a BBB- rating from Standard & Poors, a BBB from Fitch Ratings with stable outlook and a Baa2 rating with negative outlook from Moody’s.
Moody’s justified its decision to change Colombia’s outlook from stable to negative back in February citing not only a “slower pace of fiscal consolidation and weaker metrics” but the risk presented by political polarization and its effect on any government’s ability “to pass additional fiscal measures”.
The candidates now head to a short, head-to-head campaign. Voting resumes on June 17 and the new president will take office in August.LF