With a possible Greek default back in the spotlight this week, this month’s bond issuance appears to have little chance of matching previous Septembers’ volumes, or even reaching the $5-$7bn that bankers had expected. “There is a high degree of uncertainty in the market as it pertains to the future of the euro zone and the US economy,” says a senior EM strategist. Nearing mid-September, only 4 LatAm issuers have surfaced this month, to issue $2.86bn in the cross-border market. This compares to $15.8bn in from 23 cross-border transactions in the full month September 2010, and with $11.98bn from 15 deals in September 2009, according to LatinFinance data. “Investors have less risk tolerance [especially] over the following days,” adds a debt analyst. “We are in a partial shutdown of the bond market, though we have seen some investment grade names out there,” says a London-based portfolio manager. The investor adds while there has been little activity in the LatAm bond market the positive news is that inactivity shows that borrowers are self-reliant and not overly dependent on borrowing. Bankers foresee a choppy market ahead and expect to see little to no activity in terms of bond issuance in the week ahead. Brazil’s Odebrecht has wrapped up fixed-income investor meetings with an eye towards issuing a 30-year while Peru’s BBVA Continental is the sole corporate on the road this week with BBVA, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, through Thursday. “Unless there is substantial news that causes an inflection point this week, it will be interesting if anything happens,” says a New York-based DCM banker.
Category: Bonds
Pemex Nears Local Jumbo
Pemex is on track to issue up to MXP15bn ($1.18bn) in the domestic bond market, expecting to issue as soon as tomorrow or Wednesday. The state-owned oil producer can pick among a TIIE-based 7-year tranche, 10-year fixed-rate portion and 15-year UDI-denominated piece. Banamex, BBVA Bancomer and HSBC are managing the deal, rated AAA on a national scale. Pemex placed MXP10bn in 5-year bonds locally earlier this year.
Will Volatility Dampen Enthusiasm for Global BRL?
With EM local currency funds consistently bucking the trend of outflows seen in other asset classes and the Brazilian government’s IOF tax pushing investors to the offshore local currency curve, hopes have been running high that a true reopening of the global BRL market is just around the corner. Another selloff Friday on renewed fears over a Greek default has no doubt dampened such expectations, but such deals have started to trickle out, and bankers still think there is room for this asset to grow. “We have seen some level of risk aversion as a consequence of global volatility and that will make investors choosier about the issuer they may accept, but they will still look at global BRL issues as long as the currency remains strong versus the dollar and interest rates remain high on a relative basis in Brazil,” says Gustavo Ferarro, head of LatAm debt capital markets at Barclays. Last week’s BRL1.1bn 5-year from Brasil Telecom was arguably a good sign. The BRL2bn book may have been smaller than a BRL400m issue from McDonald’s franchisee Arcos Dorados earlier this year, but the deal printed with a 9.875% yield despite some resistance to sub-10% pricing. Its comparatively large size also provided the liquidity that key institutional accounts seek in this uncertain environment. “There is appetite for BRL globals, but it is going to come down to issuance size. If the market begins to stabilize, there will be more demand for these types of instruments because of the IOF tax and growth of local currency funds,” says Douglas Chen, managing director, fixed-income, at Itau. Secondary yields of around 10% on Arcos Dorados and Coelba’s BRL bonds are clearly attractive at a time when US Treasury yields are being driven lower by a flight to safety bid. Further, Brasil Telecom’s new 5-year was holding up relatively well despite the selloff Friday and trading at around 9.88%-9.78%.The increasing number of outstanding bonds should also help with price discovery. “There are more ou
BBVA Peru Hits the Road
Peru’s BBVA Continental has mandated BBVA, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to arrange fixed-income investor meetings in the US and Europe starting next week. The borrower will see accounts beginning August 13 with scheduled stops in New York and London Tuesday, and Chicago and Switzerland Wednesday, before wrapping up in Los Angeles and Boston Thursday. BBVA Continental last came to market in November 2010, when it priced a $300m 2020 at 99.220 with a 5.500% coupon to yield 5.603%. S&P recently upgraded Continental to BBB from BBB minus following a similar move for the sovereign last month.
EM Bonds Gain
For the week ended September 7, EM bonds registered net inflows of $684m, with local currency funds accounting for $212m of that, according to EPFR Global. Meanwhile, Lipper data show that in the week ended September 8, EM debt funds lost 0.54%, but are still up 5.74% year-to-date. Global income funds lost 0.11% in the week, but have earned 5.15% ytd. It is a similar story for international income funds, which lost 0.75% in the week, but earned 6.42% ytd.
Odebrecht Eyes 30-Year
Brazil’s Construtora Norberto Odebrecht was heard considering a 30-year bond as it wrapped up fixed-investor meetings last week with Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs. The Baa3/BBB minus issuer is keeping an eye on the market and expects to issue as soon as this week, market conditions permitting. “There is plenty of interest but everything is about yield [and timing] at this stage,” says a person familiar with the transaction. Size has yet to be determined. Brazil’s Braskem was the last corporate to issue a 30-year in July, when it priced a bond at 98.479 with a 7.125% coupon to yield 7.25% or 308.1bp over UST. “Issuing a 30-year may be difficult in the current market as investors are staying closer to more liquid 5 and 10-year bonds,” says a senior portfolio manager following the name. The investor adds with 30-year USTs near historical lows it makes sense from the issuer’s perspective to lock in longer-term financing at lower rates. Odebrecht last came to market in March 2011 when it issued a $500m bond via Bank of America Merrill Lynch and HSBC.
BCP Draws a Crowd
Banco de Credito del Peru (BCP) priced Thursday a $350m 15NC10 subordinated Tier 2 bond (Baa3/BBB) at par to yield 6.875% or UST+489.5bp, coming in line with earlier guidance and at the tight end of low 7 whispers. With BCP’s senior bonds due 2020 trading at 5.5%-5.7%, sub 7 was considered too tight for some and barely sufficient to provide a new issue premium, “This deal came in too tight,” says a LatAm credit analyst. The book shrunk to around $700m from $1bn once leads squeezed whispers lower and some investors declined to participate, but the bond nevertheless jumped on the break and traded up half a point up from reoffer late Thursday afternoon. Leads were heard talking about a final new issue premium of 17bp, in line with the senior to subordinate spread on Brazilian banking names. Bankers say windows are open for investment grade credits like Chile, which sold $1.35bn worth of bonds Wednesday, and Peruvian corporates like BCP. “Peru is very much in the sweet spot for the market right now and with the [Peru] sovereign at investment grade; these are the types of issuers that should be reopening the market, “notes a syndicate manager away from the deal. Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley led.
BT Gets BRL1bn at Sub-10%
Telemar’s Brasil Telecom (BT) priced a BRL1.1bn ($662m) 5-year bond Thursday after building a book that reached BRL2bn in size. The telecom was heard seeing some resistance below the 10% whispers circulated in the market, but it nevertheless managed to squeeze guidance to 9.875% area before pricing at 99.516 with a coupon of 9.75% yield of 9.875%. The result may bode well for an asset class that bankers says holds much promise if, like BT, the borrower can issue in size and provide the liquidity investors seek in this uncertain environment. Accounts were largely comping against Companhia de Eletricidade do Estado da Bahia (Coelba)’s BRL 400m 2016 bond and McDonalds franchisee Arcos Dorados’s BRL400m 5-year, which were respectively at around 10.06% and 10%. Banco Safra, the most recent borrower to tap BRL globals, also had its bond being quoted around 10.20% yield. “Around the 10% area is in the right zip code,” says an investor looking at the name. The deal was brought to market via Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citi, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Itau and Morgan Stanley. A subsidiary of Telemar Norte Leste S.A. (Baa2/BBB minus/BBB), the company is rated Baa2/BBB. Telemar last tapped the overseas market in December 2010, when it pulled the trigger on a EUR750m 2017 bond that was priced at 98.828 with a 5.125% coupon to yield 5.33%. On that occasion HSBC, Santander, BB Securities and Espirito Santo Investment Bank acted as leads. The operator of the Oi brand also sold $1bn in 2020 bonds in September 2010. Telemar has not issued an international bond through the Brasil Telecom unit since acquiring it in 2008. The bonds will be governed under New York law and listed on the Irish Stock Exchange.
Chile Considers 2012 Return
In an effort to keep its commitment of maintaining a regular presence in the international capital markets, Chile isn’t ruling out the possibility of more foreign bond forays in 2012 and 2013, said the country’s Finance Minister Felipe Larrain at a roundtable discussion with journalists Thursday following a $1.35bn equivalent USD and CLP issue the day before. “A 10-year is the bread and butter [and the most liquid] in this market but a 5-year and 30-year will not be ruled out,” he said. Last year, the sovereign landed a 3.89% coupon, which at the time was its lowest ever, but it beat that record on Wednesday with a 3.35% coupon on a new $1bn 10-year. Coming with an even lower coupon may be an attractive option, but Larrain hoped that the sovereign would fail in its attempts to squeeze pricing tighter as this “would mean that the world economy was in dire straits,” he added. Still, the sovereign has established an attractive pricing benchmark for its corporates to follow. “The Republic has set the benchmark and [Chilean] companies can now set terms over that benchmark,” he added. Wednesday’s issue was twice over subscribed and was led by HSBC and Deutsche Bank. Ratings were AAa3/A+/A+ (stable/positive/stable) (Moody’s/S&P/Fitch.
Ex-BTG Pair to Join Plural
Brazilian asset management firm Plural Capital has hired ex-BTG Pactual partners Evandro Pereira and Pedro Guimaraes, in a move that could be an attempt to carve out a niche in investment banking. A Plural spokesman confirms the hires, but declines to comment on the role they will play upon joining the firm, which has about BRL600m ($360m) under management. This comes after Plural agreed to buy competitor Banco Modal for an estimated BRL130m, and it is now rumored to be in talks to acquire local brokerage Flow Corretora. Pereira and Guimaraes are reunited with Rodolfo Riechert and Andre Schwartz, who founded Plural in 2009 after they left BTG. Guimaraes, a FIG investment banking specialist, and Pereira, an ECM specialist, left BTG last year.
