Category: Corporate & Sovereign Strategy

For investors in Argentina, the political outlook is key to their investment outlook for the country. Some analysts say that even a second Fernandez administration would take a more conciliatory approach to the business community now that it has lost Nestor Kirchner. “After the passing of Nestor Kirchner, the political landscape has changed,” says Daniel Marx, executive director of Quantum Finanzas, an Argentine financial advisory firm specializing in corporate finance and portfolio management. “The elections now look much less personalized. Kirchner’s personality catalyzed situations one way or the other. That seems to be much less the case going forward.” The national presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for October 23, with mandatory primaries scheduled for August 14. All 23 provinces and Buenos Aires will have elections for their governors while one-third of the upper house and half of the lower house of the legislative branch of the government will be in play. Fernandez’s Peronist alliance will see a challenge from the center-right alliance, along with one from the Radical party. The new president will be inaugurated in December. According to Marx, the three most formidable candidates this fall will be incumbent Cristina Fernandez for the Peronist FPV party, businessman and leader of the center-right PRO alliance’s Mauricio Macri, and Radical member of the Lower House of Congress Ricardo Alfonsin. Macri and Alfonsin have already made their intentions known. “The . . . big question mark that we have for the future is whether Cristina will run or not,” Marx says. “Speculation is that she will but she has not confirmed that.” Macri, the head of government for Buenos Aires, is the most visible leader of the opposition, says Daniel Kerner, LatAm analyst with political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. According to US diplomatic cables published by Wikileaks, Macri informed the US ambassador to Buenos Aires in 2009 that he plans to run in the next elect

Argentina is likely to experience increased demand for its agricultural exports as low domestic consumption combines with untapped arable land, analysts say. “South America needs to provide the world with incremental soybean supply,” says Alexander Bos, a London-based agricultural commodities analyst at Macquarie. “Accelerating soybean demand in Asia, especially China, is increasing the pressure on soybean supplies,” he adds. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soya oil and third largest exporter of soybeans, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. The country is using only 18% of its fertile farmland, the agency adds. “Argentina’s output of food is for 350m people, but there are only 40m people in the country so it will keep on being a leading food exporter with a growing importance,” says Axel Hinsch, CEO at Calyx Agro. Calyx acquires, develops, converts and sells land in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. Meanwhile, drought could affect this year’s crop in Argentina. Walter Chiarvesio, head of equity research at Santander Rio, says soya output could fall to 50m tons, down from predictions of 52m-53m tons for the year and a recorded 55m tons for 2010. “The outlook is good because prices are high and production has not gone down that much, which is positive for the sector,” Chiarvesio says. Argentine agriculture companies are also making significant investments in technology, according to Hinsch. “Los Grobo Agropecuaria has made big investments, and is using new technology and as a result has grown significantly,” says Gabriel Beramendi, an analyst at Argentine advisors firm Prisma Invest.