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Chilean Rate Hikes on Horizon: JPMorgan

Chile’s Central bank will likely raise interest rates 50bp in July and 25bp in August, JPMorgan says in a research report, lifting the benchmark to 7.5% by the end of 2008. The shop attributes the expected moves to the 10.4% minimum wage increase, as well as a high CPI reading anticipated for June. It also lowered its 2009 GDP growth forecast to 3.50% from 3.75%, owed to the expected monetary tightening.

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Mexico Rate Hike Likely: Barclays

Barclays expects a 25bp rate hike in Mexico this Friday, based on short term high inflation forecasts and firm international food commodity prices. “Today’s announcement by President Calderon regarding agreements to cap the prices of 150 goods reflects the seriousness of the inflation matter,” Barclays says. “We acknowledge it may pose some risk to our rate hike call, but it does not change our expectation for higher short-run inflation, and see it as a complement rather than a substitute to monetary policy,” the shop adds.

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Esteves Departs UBS to Start Fund

Andre Esteves is leaving UBS following a brief stint running global fixed income to start a new global investment fund worth up to $3bn. The former CEO and chairman of UBS LatAm – who was recently demoted from a global role after the Swiss bank scaled back its risk profile – is taking 12 former Pactual executives with him, following months of speculation of a split. UBS bought Pactual in 2006 amid great fanfare, but its Brazilian staff swiftly became disenchanted with the move as the global bank was dragged down by huge subprime losses. The new fund, which will employ global EM hedge and private equity strategies, will target an initial raise of $2.5bn-$3.0bn, say people familiar with the initiative. Fundraising could begin by year-end. Esteves is joined by 12 UBS Pactual staff, including Roberto Sallouti, an MD and head of fixed income for LatAm, as well as James Oliveira, a senior executive in UBS Pactual’s treasury group, which does prop trading. Most of the departures will be from the prop trading group, whose role was dramatically diminished following a decision at the UBS’s head office to reduce risk and focus purely on client-facing fixed income, say bank officials. Rodrigo Xavier, head of UBS Pactual’s asset management business, will replace Esteves as chairman and CEO of Brazil, while Juerg Haller will become chairman and CEO of UBS LatAm. Esteves is expected to formally announce his new venture by July. Until a month ago he ran the ailing Swiss bank’s global fixed income, currencies and commodities business.

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Petrobras Set to Lever Up

Petrobras plans to significantly increase its leverage ratio over the next several years as it raises funds necessary to extract oil from its most recent discoveries. CEO Jose Sergio Gabrielli says the state-controlled producer can expect to eventually have a 25%-35% debt ratio, up from 17% at the moment. He adds that Petrobras will announce the amount it needs to raise when it details a revised strategic plan in the second half of the year. The official does not see a big change in the sources Petrobras will use for funds – bonds, loans, and export credit financing. “The difference is Brazil is investment-grade and we can tap different investors, but the approach is the same,” Gabrielli says, speaking at a New York presentation sponsored by the Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce. Petrobras plans to raise $5bn this year, and is widely expected to issue soon to cash in on the sovereign upgrades and a non-deal roadshow in March.

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Brazil’s Rate Hikes Expected to Continue

The decision of Brazil’s central bank to raise the Selic rate 50bp to 12.25% suggests that the tightening of monetary policy is increasing in pace, according to Itau. “We now believe the Copom will keep the pace of rate hikes this year, but will come further than we previously thought,” the shop says. Itau forecasts the Selic rate at 14.25% at the end of the year.

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Colombia Rate Hike Likely: Barclays

Colombia’s central bank could deliver a 25bp rate hike at its next meeting due to the need to fight inflation according to Barclays,. “Further tightening beyond that point cannot be discarded,” the shop adds. CPI for May brought a significant upside surprise, with consumer prices increasing 0.93% mom, Barclays says. The YoY inflation rate was 6.4%, well above the central bank’s 3.5%-4.5% target. The board will meet again June 27.

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Ford Reported in Big Mexico Investment

Ford is planning $3bn in Mexico investments, including production of a new subcompact Fiesta model and revamping two plants, according to wire reports. CEO Alan Mulally says the Cuautitlan plant, near Mexico City, will start building the Fiesta in early 2010 for export to the US, according to Reuters. The investment also includes a joint venture with Getrag JV for a transmission plant in the central state of Guanajuato. “Ford is investing $2.4 billion and $600 million is from our suppliers,” says Mulally, according to Reuters.

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