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Argentine Election Not Expected to Bring Change

If, as expected, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner wins the election, analysts expect few changes in economic policy. “Her policies would be oriented towards maintaining a competitive exchange rate [and] keeping the fiscal and external accounts in surplus,” says Goldman Sachs. It adds that government intervention in the economy will remain high. To deal with inflation, risks of a wage-price spiral, a deteriorating fiscal position and a growing energy crisis, the shop expects the new administration to seek agreements with labor unions and the industrial sector. It also expects Kirchner II to tighten the fiscal stance by moderating the pace of growth in public expenditure. “We would not expect changes in terms of FX policy (which would remain focused at maintaining a competitive currency) or monetary policy (which would likely remain accommodative),” says Goldman. It is unclear who will lead the economic team, though press reports suggest former central bank president Mario Blejer, current central bank president Martin Redrado and the current economy minister Miguel Peirano may play a role. Kirchner will have to appoint a team by December 10.

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Icelandic Bank Sells MXP Bonds

Kaupthing Bank has priced a $200m local Mexican 2012 senior floating-rate bond issue at TIIE plus 25bp. The bond, following a Mexican road show, is Kaupthing’s first in LatAm and the first ever public issue by a Nordic bank in Mexico, says the issuer. The bank has been looking to diversify, David Stefansson, senior funding manager, tells LatinFinance, and liked the liquidity in the Mexican market. “We noticed a lack of short-term FRN supply in Mexico,” he explained. The bonds sold to local investors including banks and insurance companies. Proceeds, after being swapped into dollars, will be used for general corporate purposes. Joint lead managers in this transaction were BBVA Bancomer and Lehman.

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Rossi Issues BRL302.4bn

Brazilian real estate developer Rossi Residencial, has sold BRL300m ($162m) in 2014 bonds at 106.6% of the CDI. Bradesco BBI coordinated. This is the first tranche in a program worth $3bn. The debut debentures outing by Rossi follows an IPO last year that raised just over BRL1billion.

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Mall Company Taps Debentures

Iguatemi Empresa de Shopping Centers, a Brazilian mall company, raised BRL200m ($102.4m) in 2014 local bonds at 104.5% of the CDI interbank rate Wednesday. The deal was met with lukewarm reception and the book was slightly undersubscribed, according to a banker close to the transaction. Proceeds from the offering are being used to build up a war-chest for acquisitions of assets in the Brazilian mall sector. The deal was led by UBS Pactual and Santander Banespa, each of which underwrote BRL80m. Citi took a BRL40m piece, according to Dealogic.

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Inflation and Energy Crisis Hit Kirchner Rating

Rising inflation and continuing energy shortages are having an impact on President Nestor Kirchner’s approval rating, according to Buenos Aires pollster Poliarquia. The President’s popularity fell from 57% in May to 52% in June as a wave of cold weather, energy shortages and rising consumer prices have dented his image. President Kirchner or his wife, senator Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, are likely to run in the presidential elections later this year.

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GMAC Mexico Raises MXP1.8bn

GMAC Financiera and GMAC Hipotecária, the Mexican subsidiaries of Rescap, together issued MXP1.8bn in 5-year senior guaranteed bonds yesterday, at TIIE+75bp. On Thursday, TIIE was trading around 7.70%, but the exact yield for the notes will only be next week when the bonds settle. Guidance was 70bp-80bp. MXP1.4bn will go to GMAC Financiera and MXP400m to the Hipotecária. The notes are rated AA and AA+ by S&P and Fitch on a local scale. Credit Suisse was the bookrunner.

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