In a unanimous decision, the Colombian central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 10% on its policy meeting Friday, citing a slight increase in yearly inflation compared to last month, a small drop in non-food inflation and overall deceleration in the world economy. Going forward, the bank should adopt a more prospective view on inflation as at the current 10% level the policy rate is already contributing to a soft landing of the economy, which should in due time mitigate inflation risk as the output gap increases, according to Goldman Sachs. “However, if inflation continues to surprise on the upside and inflation expectations worsen we do not rule out additional monetary tightening before year-end, but at this stage that does not seem very probable,” Goldman adds. The bank may to leave the rate unchanged for awhile, the shop states.
Category: Topics
LatAm Equity Suffers Biggest Redemptions
LatAm equity funds suffered redemptions of $504.0m in the week ended August 13, according to EPFR Global, which calls it the week’s worst performing major fund group. LatAm posted a collective 6.26% loss, extending a 10-week, $3.45 billion losing streak that has been fueled by steady outflows from Brazil equity, says EPFR. Brazil funds lost $47.0m, which helped bring AUM to $12.3bn. So far this year, Brazil funds have seen net inflows of $257m. “With some commodity prices hitting 6-month lows and the price of oil dropping briefly below $113 a barrel, investors pulled more money out,” says the service. The asset class as tracked by EPFR has a total $27.9bn in assets under management (AUM) and has lost $1.81bn so far this year.
Equity Fund Returns Wilt
LatAm equity funds followed the trend from last week and lost 4.02% in the week ending August 14, according to Lipper, worse than EM overall. China region funds sank 2.36% while EM funds dropped 1.94%. Gold oriented funds took the biggest hit of the week, losing 5.69%, while diversified leverage funds bagged the highest gain, at 6.26%. LatAm funds experienced a drop of 4.92% last week, and have dropped 11.68% year to date, Lipper data shows. EM equity funds have sunk 20.89% year to date.
S&P Sees Strength in T&T
S&P has raised Trinidad and Tobago to A (stable) from A minus to reflect continued strengthening of fiscal and external accounts. Backed by a booming energy market, the economy has grown an average of 9.3% annually since 2003 and that is expected to grow about 7% in 2008. The stable outlook represents the needs to do further economic diversification, a key step to reducing vulnerabilities that the non-energy deficit continues to highlight, the agency states. “Improvements in transparency and governance, in particular among the public-sector enterprises, could further strengthen Trinidad and Tobago’s creditworthiness,” S&P says. “Slippages in the pace of restructuring government-owned entities or significant increases in an already-high level of fiscal spending could lead to an unfavorable rating action,” the agency warns.
Mexico Tightening Seen Nearing End
Last week’s 25bp rate hike to 8.25% in Mexico, accompanied by a more dovish message, signals an end is near to the hawkish phase, say analysts. “The tightening cycle may be over,” says Lehman. “We still think that they may need to hike once more before year-end if inflation continues to surprise to the upside, precluding the anchoring of inflation expectations, but this decision will be highly dependent on new data.” A recently revised inflation projection and declining global commodities gives room to pause at following meetings, the shop adds. Goldman Sachs meanwhile predicts that after an October 25bp rise, Banxico will keep the TdF at 8.50% until Q4 2009. “If by then inflation declines toward or below the projected path, then there is scope for Banxico cutting the TdF twice by 25bp per meeting, to 8.00% by December 2009,” says Goldman, echoing a previous forecast. Out on a limb is Credit Suisse, which calls 8.25% as the top. “This was the third consecutive 25bp monthly rise, but it is likely to be the last one in this cycle,” says the shop. “An overnight rate of 8.25% seems to be high enough for inflation to be within the bank’s projected path over the 2-year policy horizon,” it adds. Barclays also expects the rate to be left unchanged for some months. “We might be seeing the end of the hike cycle,” says Rodrigo Valdes, the shop’s chief economist for LatAm.
Mexico’s Collado Slashes Bond Size
Market conditions continue to challenge Mexican debt issuers, as Grupo Collado managed to place just MXP400m of an issue originally set for MXP1.2bn. The steel processor priced MXP200m in 2011 bonds last week at TIIE plus 290bp, and MXP211m in 2010 bonds at TIIE plus 195bp. Collado scrapped altogether a third tranche with a tenor of up to 5 years. It is heard aiming to still sell a third tranche, as the offering was intended to repay some MXP700m in expensive debt maturing this year. Ixe managed the transaction, rated A minus on a national scale.
Peru Sponsors Ready Infrastructure Bond
Ecuadorian concession operator Hidalgo & Hidalgo, through its Peruvian subsidiary CASA, is heard close to launching bond financing for the fifth and final leg of Peru’s Interoceanica highways, or IIRSA Tramo 5. The dollar-denominated PPP bond is expected in the $200m size area, and will feature the basic characteristics of the CRPAO structure, in which Peru’s government guarantees payment on notes issued from a trust. BNP Paribas is leading the deal, having structured previous financings for Peruvian toll roads. The transaction – set to meet the same tough market conditions as all other LatAm issuers, as well as investor aversion to complex structured deals – is heard to include novel features like a delayed draw, which adds flexibility to the borrower’s access to funds. In a typical CRPAO structure, notes are issued from a trust and proceeds sit in a remote vehicle, which feeds cash in increments to the concessionaire as it meets construction milestones. Deutsche Bank has been active in these deals, completing at least one this year that was redistributed in the form of CLNs to EM institutional investors. In one transaction, Grana y Montero – the Peruvian developer – and JJC Contratistas raised $193m through a trust that has an 18.5-year life and can issue debt and derivatives.
Fitch Notes Bermuda’s Low Debt to GDP
Fitch has affirmed Bermuda’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at AA+ (stable). Bermuda’s 2007 general government debt as a proportion of GDP was 6.1%, versus a AA category median of 24.1%. A high per capita income, low public debt burden, and mature domestic political system support Bermuda’s creditworthiness, Fitch says. “The ratings also reflect Bermuda’s strong offshore international financial center underpinned by a proven track record of effective management of the economy and business environment,” Fitch adds. Bermuda has a 10% of GDP policy limit for net general government debt and a sinking fund for repayment of future maturities. Limited information about the debt of foreign-owned entities residing in Bermuda remains a key rating constraint, even though these liabilities are highly unlikely to affect Bermuda’s public finances or the domestic financial system, says Fitch.
JPMorgan Scales Back Dicey Andean Credit
Problematic policy framework and downward trending oil may cause problems for Venezuela’s and Ecuador’s sovereign debt, JPMorgan says. The bank recommends reducing exposure to both sovereigns’ dollar-denominated bonds, cutting them to underweight from marketweight. “While current spreads are not reflective of the tremendous oil windfall that both countries have enjoyed year to date and oil prices are still some $20 per barrel above levels that would start to be problematic for external and fiscal accounts, we believe that the political calendar will encourage faster spending and unpredictable presidential behavior,” it says in a report. Falling oil improves the picture for import-dependent sovereigns, however, as the shop raised El Salvador to overweight from marketweight.
Ultrapar Bags Texaco’s Brazil Operations
Ultrapar is buying Texaco’s Brazilian fuel marketing business from Chevron for BRL1.16bn. The transaction is to be paid with Ultrapar’s own cashflow, the company says. The acquisition comprises of approximately 2,000 service stations and 48 distribution terminals, Ultrapar says. The purchase will allow Ultrapar’s gas station network Ipiranga to get national coverage, the company says. Ipiranga’s and Texaco’s operations will create a network of 5,000 service stations, comprising 23% of the Brazilian market, Ultrapar says. Merrill Lynch advised the Brazilian company on the purchase, a company spokeswoman says. In June, Ultrapar acquired 100% of port terminal operator Uniao Terminais for BRL482.7m. Freshfields was the legal advisor to Ultrapar on Texaco.