Market consensus points to Colombia’s central bank keeping its monetary policy rate intact at 3.0% today. Morgan Stanley expect rates on hold as authorities focus on low current inflation readings and the appreciating currency rather than risks from strong growth translating into inflation next year. Corredores Asociados also believes the rate could be kept at 3.0% to continue stimulating the local economy. Elsewhere, Mexico’s central bank is expected to keep its monetary policy rate unchanged at 4.5% today. “Though inflation has been running well below the central bank’s estimates since the second quarter, the authorities do not seem in any hurry to resume cutting rates given, among other factors, the stubbornly high level of inflation expectations for 2011 and beyond,” says Morgan Stanley. Barclays expects the rate to stay at 4.5% until Q1 2011, tightening by 25bp in Q2 next year.
Category: Regions
Macquarie Works on Mexico Infrastructure
Macquarie is in negotiations for concessions on several Mexican infrastructure projects, and may have up to 2 agreements in place by the end of the year. Jonathan Davis Arzac, executive president of the Australian bank’s Mexican Infrastructure Fund, sees wind farms, highways, water and, to a lesser extent, railways, as areas of particular interest to the fund. “Water quality has been a significant problem in Mexico,” Arzac says. In tandem with significant demand for infrastructure improvement, Arzac says the country has made strides toward opening up to investment in projects. This includes changes to laws regarding private-public partnerships and the creation of the certificados de capital de desarollo asset class, which allows Mexican pension funds to partake in infrastructure investment. He was speaking at the LatinFinance Infrastructure and Sub-Sovereign Finance in Mexico Summit being held this week in Merida.
Mexico Lacks Investors For Sub-Sovereigns
While innovative structures are being used by sub-sovereigns in Mexico to support funding, work still needs to be done to attract a variety of investors, say panelists at the LatinFinance Infrastructure and Sub-Sovereign Finance in Mexico Summit. Sub-sovereign debt makes up 3.4% of GDP, compared to 1.7% in 2004, say bankers, but some investors are still reluctant to buy. “Structured finance products from states have very low participation from Afores or foreign investors, though government treasuries have increased their investments, as products are becoming more long-term,” says Dario Luna Pa, chief economist at the CNBV. Structures such as securitizing future flows of income from residential property titles can be very costly for the issuer, says Francisco Gonzalez, director of planning and public funding at State of Mexico, which did the first such deal last month. However, states should be encouraged by the fact that there has been an increase in appetite from local banks for sub-sovereign risk in the past year, according to Gerardo Salazar of Banco Interacciones. “These are good credits, we are buying their paper and we are very positive about them,” he adds. Nonetheless, 60 of the last 75 ratings actions taken on sub-sovereign have been downgrades, meaning some investors will not participate, says Salazar. Gonzalez says states must be transparent and accommodate the needs of the market, and also take actions necessary to maintain ratings so as to attract as many types of investors as possible. “The State of Mexico has had 7 ratings upgrades since this administration came in. Sure, it was from a low base, but this helped when we bought our deal that securitized future income flows from residential property titles to the market,” he adds.
Mexico’s Yucatan Seeks PPPs
Mexico’s Yucatan is looking for investment after a law passed in August approving public private partnerships (PPPs), the state’s head of public works Francisco Torres tells LatinFinance. A high-speed train in the Yucatan Peninsula, 2 hospitals and 2 museums are some of the proposed PPPs. The high-speed train would be funded by the Fonadin national infrastructure fund, federal and state money, as well as private investment. “This will make a huge economic, social and touristic impact on the region,” adds Torres. He estimates the cost at MXP18bn, and says studies that it is a financially viable project have already been done, with contracts out to tender in Q2 2011. The line will join Merida to Progreso, Merida to Valladolid, Izamal and Chichen Itza, and Valladolid to Calica. It is estimated that one of the museums will cost MXP3.5bn-MXP4.0bn, and by the end of the year contracts will be out to tender, with the project expected to be completed by the end of 2011. The 2 hospitals will cost MXP3.5bn in total, with contracts out to tender in Q1 of 2011, and the project is expected to start in August 2011. “This private investment will allow projects to be finished in one phase,” says Torres. “It will allow projects to be completed that we would otherwise not have the resources for and this will also create better infrastructure and jobs,” he adds. Public projects currently underway, which have had federal and state investment, include motorways, which Torres expects to be completed by 2012. He adds that they do not have major financing needs. A new ministry of public security is also planned. This has already had MXP400m of investment and a further MXP105m, with completion expected in 2011.
Interbank Preps Bond Issue
Peru’s interbank is preparing a new 10-year bond at up to $400m, hoping to capitalize on bullishness that greeted rival Banco de Credito del Peru earlier this month. The bank will start in London Monday, and visit Boston before finishing in Los Angeles and New York Wednesday. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) and JPMorgan have joint books. The deal is rated Baa3. BBB/BBB minus BCP priced an $800m 2020 bond 2 weeks ago through BAML and Deutsche Bank. It came at 99.763 with a 5.375% coupon to yield 5.406%, or UST plus 265bp, the tight end of 275bp-area guidance.
Brazil Developer Readies DCM Debut
Commercial real estate developer BR Properties is aiming for its first dollar bond. It will visit investors beginning in Hong Kong and Switzerland Monday, and hit Singapore and New York before finishing in London and Boston Wednesday. Credit Suisse and Itau are managing the meetings. BR Properties has not communicated details for a transaction, and it has not yet been rated. It raised BRL1.07bn through a March equity IPO via Itau.
Moody’s Turns Positive on Chubb in Colombia
Moody’s has changed the outlook on Chubb de Colombia’s Baa3 ratings to positive from stable. The move comes after Moody’s revised the outlook of Colombia’s long-term foreign currency ceiling to positive, from stable. Moody’s says the company maintains a moderate position in the general insurance sector, with just over 2% share, albeit a leading position in certain specialty insurance lines. Chubb de Colombia also benefits from the integration with its ultimate parent company, The Chubb Corporation, whose senior unsecured debt is rated A2, and the reinsurance protection from its direct parent company, Federal Insurance, which has an Aa2 insurance financial strength rating.
Herdez to Issue MXP Bond
Mexico’s Grupo Herdez, is planning to issue MXP600m-MXP800m in 7-year bonds September 22, according to a regulatory filing. Investors say the deal is talked at 170bp-200bp over Mbonos, which they view as fair for this issuer. Ixe is bookrunner on the deal, rated AA on a national scale. Proceeds will be used for refinancing and general corporate purposes. Herdez is a manufacturer and distributor of food products including canned fish, fruits, juices, vegetables, and condiments.
Investors Drive Credito Real Retap
Mexico’s Credito Real raised $60m in a reverse inquiry-driven retap of its 10.25% coupon 2015 bonds. The payroll discount lender reopened at par, to yield just under the 100.50 secondary price seen Tuesday morning, according to a banker on it. Bank of America Merrill Lynch managed the sale, which brings the outstanding amount to $210m. The BB minus rated borrower in April raised $150m in a debut issue, also priced at par and managed by BAML.
China Inc Upbeat on LatAm Power
Chinese companies are surveying the power generation and transmission in LatAm, with Sinohydro and China Machine New Energy Corporation (CMNEC) both showing significant interest in several countries. Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Venezuela and Chile are all countries where the latter has direct investments in energy plants, or is in talks with government representatives about wind, hydro or coal fire plants. Its most recent investment was in a coal fire plant in Guatemala. “We have also been invited to participate in wind and coal fire projects by the Dominican Republic,” says Wang Wei, general manager of the overseas department at CMNEC. “Central American countries are eager to invite us, but the next step is to invest in larger economies like Brazil and Mexico, which we see as promising and offering even higher profits,” says Wang. However, she adds that countries like Honduras and Guatemala have offered significant profits, which she puts down to the countries being not very developed and more in urgent need of investment. Federico Restrepo, CEO of Colombia’s EPM says stable and transparent rules, as well as open and public bids for equipment and the construction of projects, would make Colombia an attractive option for investment. He adds that EPM in particular is open to negotiating conditions for capital investment, though he admits that one difficulty is receiving government guarantees, considered necessary by many Chinese companies. On necessary conditions for investment, Sinohydro’s Xin Zongyi says stable economic growth is the main priority, while Wang adds that efficiency, political stability and attractive revenues, in addition to economic growth, are necessary. “Security is part of our considerations, but it is not a priority,” she adds. Sinohydro is confident in its ability to fund its investments. “We have very strong support from Chinese banks, so liquidity is not a big problem for us,” says Xin. CMNEC is looking to launch its IPO, via Morgan Stan
