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Colombia Rate Stays Intact

Colombia’s central bank has left its monetary policy rate intact at 3.00%, citing lower-than-expected inflation in July at 2.24% and faster-than-expected growth in the local economy. Standard Chartered forecasts that the first rate hike of 50bp will come in December and the policy rate will rise to 5.0% by June 2011. Barclays Capital continues to think the bank will remain on hold through year-end, beginning to normalize monetary policy in January 2011.

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Moody’s Chops Sare

Moody’s has downgraded Mexico-based home developer Sare Holdings’ ratings to B2 from B1. It also changes the outlook to stable from negative. The ratings agency says the actions reflect the company’s continued operating profit and credit metrics weakening, specifically interest coverage and debt to Ebitda. Sare also has struggled with working capital issues related to its significant high-rise development of middle- and higher-income buildings, which continue to place pressure on the company’s receivables collection cycle. Debt/Ebitda was 6.13x for Q2, 5.65x for year end 2009 and 5.28x for year end 2008.

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Fitch Upgrades Termocandelaria

Fitch has upgraded Colombia-based power generator Termocandelaria’s ratings to BB from BB minus to reflect the company’s improving credit metrics resulting from stable cash flow generation and modest reductions in debt and financial leverage. The outlook is stable. “Termocandelaria Ebitda generation is expected to moderate and reflect the stability of the company’s capacity payments,” says Fitch. In the 12 months to June 30, the company reports an Ebitda generation of about $41.3m and total debt of $76.5m, which translates into modest leverage of 1.9x.

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Colombia Seen Keeping Rates On Hold

Market consensus points to Colombia’s central bank keeping its monetary policy rate on hold at 3.0% today. Morgan Stanley agrees, as it believes authorities take comfort in benign inflation data, even though economic growth continues to surprise on the upside. Standard Chartered forecasts that a first rate hike of 50bp would come in December and the policy rate will rise to 5.0% by June 2011. The central bank cut the rate by 50bp to the current 3.0% in April.

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Hacienda Confirms Meade as Werner Replacement

Ernesto Cordero Arroyo, head of Mexico’s Hacienda y Credito Publico, has appointed Jose Antonio Meade Kuribrena to replace Alejandro Werner, who resigned as deputy finance minister, according to a statement issued by the ministry. It also confirms that Jose Antonio Gonzalez Anaya replaces Meade as undersecretary for revenue. Carlos Alberto Garza Ibarra, the former head of coordination with regions, will take over from Gonzalez. Ignacio Quesada Morales will replace Garza. He was previously a social development ministry official. Werner will be going to Spain to pursue academic opportunities, according to a source at Hacienda. Meade has previously been head of the Rural Credit Bank and the Rural Development Bank. Gonzalez was previously senior economist at the World Bank for Paraguay, Bolivia and Peru. Analysts at Goldman Sachs’ EM economic research team say taking over from Werner would be difficult because of his strong credibility in the financial markets, but said the replacements made were good appointments, because of their strong public sector experience.

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Prudential Wraps Up CCD

Prudential Mexico has raised MXP3.7bn from the sale of Certificados de Capital de Desarrollo (CCDs) in Mexico’s domestic market, according to a source familiar with the deal, the largest CCD this year. The 10-year transaction supports a real estate fund making investments in industrial assets in Mexico during a 5-year period. The CCDs priced at MXP1 each, according to regulatory documents, and the deal offers a return profile in line with private equity industry standards. Investors get their initial investment plus a preferred return, in this case 12%, and proceeds are divided 80% to holders and 20% to Prudential. Prudential is heard putting MXP600m of its own capital into the deal. It had been aiming to raise MXP4bn, also including its own contribution. It is Mexico’s second real estate CCD, after a MXP3.3bn transaction from AMB closed last month, and the largest so far in that space. Prudential has raised 2 previous industrial funds in Mexico through traditional PE means, among 7 real estate funds totaling about $2.4bn in equity commitments. BBVA Bancomer managed the transaction. Also expected to close in the next 6 weeks are infrastructure fund CCDs from LatAm Capital Advisors and I Cuadrada.

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Edomex Lands Long-Awaited ABS

State of Mexico (Edomex) has finally issued an innovative MXP4.065bn 20-year deal securitizing future flows of income from residential property title fees, which it had been working on since the middle of last year. The 2030 Edomex deal has a 14-year average life, pays fixed rate and is divided into 2 tranches. An MXP2.765bn tranche features a 100% guarantee from OPIC and was priced at 132bp over Mbonos, paying a 7.86% coupon. Total demand for the tranche was MXP3.83bn, says a banker on it. It is rated AAA on a national scale. It is the first time OPIC has fully guaranteed a transaction in the local market outside the US, say bankers at the leads. The MXP1.3bn tranche carries a 30% first loss guarantee from CAF, it is rated AA on a national scale and was priced at Mbonos plus 359bp, with a coupon of 10.13%. Total demand for the second tranche was MXP1.621bn. The deal had taken so long to complete because of hold ups at the regulators, due to the novel nature of the transaction, according to a banker at one of the leads. The deal had taken so long to complete because of hold ups at the regulators, due to the novel nature of the transaction, according to a banker at one of the leads. Banamex and HSBC managing the sale, which was structured by MBIA. Of the proceeds raised, 15%-20% will go towards improving the infrastructure of the state’s public registry offices and the rest will go towards infrastructure projects in the State of Mexico. A banker at one of the leads claims it is the first of its kind and could be replicated by other Mexican states. It marks the first sizeable non-residential mortgage ABS in Mexico since the federal government raised MXP32bn on behalf of its states in a transaction backed by the FEIEF oil stabilization fund in September 2009.

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StanChart Bullish on COP

Standard Chartered has raised its short-term recommendation for the COP to neutral from underweight. “Even taking into account the recovery in commodity prices, the COP is stronger than in 2008. USD-COP trading below 1,800 is triggering fresh attention from policy makers,” it says. The shop expects COP/USD to be valued at COP1,835 in Q4 and to appreciate to COP1,800 in Q1 2011. It closed at COP1,810 Wednesday.

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