Merrill Lynch: Ecuador Will Likely Miss February Coupon Payment

In a research note sent out at the end of last week, Merrill Lynch said it believed that Ecuador would likely miss the debt service payments in February on its Global ’30s notes. The analysis by the Bank followed further details offered by Ecuador about its debt restructuring plans. President Rafael Correa said his administration would present a package to creditors in February and that it would follow the lines of Argentina’s restructuring. “Taken together”, said Merrill Lynch, “these statements likely mean that Ecuador will miss its Global ’30s coupon payment in February, and will try to push debt maturities back and cut coupon payments.” The firm went on to say that it believes Ecuador will have a harder time than Argentina convincing investors to agree to short-term debt relief given the country’s ability to pay.