Colombia Expected to Cut 50bp-100bp

Colombia’s central bank is expected to trim its monetary policy rate by 50bp-100bp today, from 8.0%. JPMorgan says negative January retail sales and IP figures will reinforce the expectation of a 100bp cut. It expects retail sales to fall 2.7% and IP to drop 9.0% for the month. Bulltick says the February inflation reading was good enough to allow the CB to ease by another 100bps this meeting. “If the February number had shown disinflation at the core level, the CB could have decided to cut interest rates by 150bp,” the shop says. The year-over-year rate of headline inflation went from 6.91% in January to 6.33% in February, according to government information. Elsewhere, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch forecasts a 50bp cut. “After delivering a surprise 100bp cut at its last meeting, February inflation came out marginally above expectations and is showing higher core readings. A return to 50bp cuts keeps the easing going but acknowledges commitment to anchoring inflation expectations,” it says.