Peru Seen Bucking Negative Trends

While most LatAm countries fall into recession, Peru is expected to see GDP grow by 4.5% this year, according to Credit Suisse, and 4.3% according to UBS Pactual. While this is not as high as in 2008, when Credit Suisse estimates the economy expanded 9.8%, it is still significantly higher than what is expected for the region as a whole. Credit Suisse also forecasts a 6% growth in private sector investment, down from 26% in 2008 and a 17% decline in the 2009 dollar value of exports, assuming that international prices for Peru’s commodity exports – gold, copper, zinc and fishmeal – stay near current levels for the rest of the year, and that export volumes are flat versus 2008.