Market Flies to Colombia Storm

Bankers, investors and sovereign issuers heading to IDB meetings hope to sustain the bullish mood of the last few trading sessions, despite forecasts of stormy weather in Medellin. Among the luminaries scheduled to attend the multilateral’s 50th annual meetings are Bill Clinton and Tim Geithner, though more LatAm-specific experts like Bill Rhodes are heard missing from the lineup. Some veterans have pulled out last minute owing to a lack of premium accommodation. “There’s only a few 5-star hotels in Medellin and they’re all booked by the IDB staff,” says a longtime investor and erstwhile IDB attendee. And sovereign DCM bankers continue to question the meeting’s importance. “If you don’t already know what a sovereign wants by the time you get there, you’re not doing your job,” quips a New York based official. But other bond and loan bankers stress that the weekend is as relevant as ever, as relationships will be the key to securing mandates in a more competitive landscape. “It’s a new world and forums like this will be important,” says one. Another stresses the importance of interacting with government officials, as guarantees and other support will be crucial for issuance. Corporate spending will likely be restrained by the prevailing parsimony. HSBC has canned its party and JPMorgan is rumored to be proceeding with its own function, while most of the other big surviving regionally-focused shops – including Credit Suisse, Citi and Deutsche – are not entertaining publicly. Most are steering clear of conspicuous corporate spend, partly because of budget, but also due to fears of negative press. North American and European buysiders might be less likely to make a trip to Medellin than Miami last year, but there should still be a critical mass in attendance, say observers.