Editors Letter – Wheel of Fortune
Dear Reader, The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency heralds not only a new political era but also a sharply revised global investment landscape — including for Latin America, which has found itself squarely in the sights of the new administration and which remains susceptible to shifts in the flow of capital. This…
COVER STORY
Q2- Against All Odds
Trump’s America First agenda has raised the stakes for Latin America investors and issuers as global markets bet on the impact of Washington’s aggressive policy pivots
FEATURES
Brazil investment: The Reckoning
Brazil’s investment climate has soured on fiscal and inflation concerns. Some issuers are considering scaling back investments, while those with large debts are getting hit by a rise in local interest rates. Making matters worse, it’s highly uncertain if conditions will get better anytime soon
Argentina: Fast Forward
Argentina moved swiftly to engineer an economic turnaround in the first year under President Milei, fueling a more than 100% gain in its dollar bonds. But for the country to emerge from its perennial boom-and-bust cycle, it must overcome even bigger economic and political hurdles — and quickly. Investors still have their doubts.
Mexico Renewable Energy: Green Shoots
With Trump shunning renewable energy, Mexico stands to lure more investment to increase its wind and solar capacity to meet rising demand. A big challenge, however, is the cost of financing. A revival in nearshoring could help.
Chile Pension Reform: Risky business
A reform of Chile’s pension fund system promises to bolster the local capital markets, but concerns about new competition may end up curbing, rather than encouraging, fresh investment.
El Salvador Economy: Threading the Needle
In the wake of a new IMF loan program for El Salvador, warmer relations with Washington could prove to the country’s benefit as it looks to fulfill the conditions of the funding.
Uruguay Finance Minister: Setting the Agenda—Gabriel Oddone
Gabriel Oddone faces challenges as Uruguay’s new economy and finance minister. The economist must shepherd the economy through turbulent times on the international front. His goals? He wants to sustain economic growth, bolster central bank reserves and narrow the fiscal deficit.
Brazil Economic Policy: Targeting a Zero Deficit—Guilherme Mello
Guilherme Mello, Brazil’s secretary of economic policy, says a slowdown in Latin America’s biggest economy isn’t raising red flags for the government, and that it is fully committed and on track to deliver a zero fiscal deficit this year and a small surplus in 2026.
Sustainable Finance: A Change in Climate
As more banks and asset managers shelve their climate commitments in line with Trump’s anti-climate push, fears are growing that the sustainable finance marketplace will take a hit. A number of investors appear ready to pick up the slack.
Local Currency Debt: Into the Deep
Latin American bond issuance in the international markets has been healthy so far this year, but the local markets are becoming increasingly attractive for corporates to dodge a rise in exchange rate volatility and tap into ample liquidity.
Parting Shot: Careful What You Wish For
Donald Trump’s vow to reclaim the Panama Canal not only challenges Panama’s sovereignty and erodes the confidence of using the waterway, but it threatens to spread US interference elsewhere in Latin America. This may dampen foreign investment in the region, opening the way for a rise in Chinese influence.
AWARDS
Deals of the Year Awards Winners 2024
The LatinFinance Deals of the Year Awards — our flagship award series and the most coveted in the industry, with a 35-year history — identify excellence across the transaction markets (debt, equity, M&A) of Latin America and the Caribbean, picking out not only the most outstanding deals but also the year’s most exceptional institutions. 2024…