Convergence of Powers

When President Alejandro Toledo sacked three ministers from his cabinet in January 2002, it seemed a clear recognition of one of the failings of his government during its first six months in office. David Waisman, Luis Solari and Doris Sánchez had perhaps not been given much time to prove their worth as ministers for defense, health, and women’s issues respectively. Indeed Waisman and Solari enjoyed high public approval.

But whatever the level of their effectiveness as ministers, their fate was sealed by the Toledo administration’s recognition that its dreadful relationship with Congress – from where the trio had been plucked to join the cabinet – was a major obstacle in the path of implementing its program. So the three ex-ministers, all members of Toledo’s Perú Posible party, were sent back to Congress to try to whip the undisciplined fellow members of their party back into line.

The poor performance of Perú Posible in Congress, and the lack of coherence between the government and the legislature, appears as one of the business sector’s most frequent criticisms of the administration’s opening months. This has driven the president’s poll ratings down. Defeated presidential candidate Alan García and his opposition APRA party have been able to exploit this discord and often put the government on the defensive.

In those opening months, Congress passed 23 laws that Toledo was forced to veto, says Roberto Dañino, Peru’s prime minister. He admits that the “lack of synchronized, co-coordinated work” between executive and legislative branches was becoming harmful.

“Our government program is based long-term on investment. To get that you need economic, political and juridical stability. The main concern about stability came from frequent conflict with the legislature. It forced the executive to define what it was made of, what its convictions were,” Dañino says.

But some of the nervousness about disagreements between executive and Congress was probably an over-reaction – partly because, after Fujimori, Peruvians were perhaps not used to the idea of any sort of consensus seeking, or to debate and discussion. Still, the January shift is widely thought to have strengthened the position of Dañino and that of the economy minister Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski, the two ministers in whom international investors place the most confidence.

Whether Toledo’s ex-ministers can steer the legislature more closely is yet be seen. “There is an environment in which stupidity is getting a clear run in the name of democracy,” says one observer, who describes the Congress as a disaster: “I think Toledo has realized the time for populism is over. But there are some in his party and around him, especially in the Congress, who don’t realize this.”

No Honeymoon
Dañino, a well-known international figure who left his Washington law firm to return to Peruvian politics, professes to being startled by the level of opposition to the new government, and criticizes the media for its hostility to the Toledo administration.”I thought we would have more leeway to implement what we wanted. But as you probably know, we didn’t have any honeymoon period,” he says. “I guess after two years of political campaigning, people were fed up with being on hold. The country was on hold for two years.” Still, Dañino says the balance of the government’s opening months is “very positive.”

“I think we have made enormous progress. We have more independent institutions, there is more rule of law, there is more freedom,” he says, asserting that, on the economic front, the country is back on the right track after four years of an on-off recession. “No one in the opposition can challenge that we are in a cycle of economic recovery,” continues Dañino. “We have achieved this despite the fact that prices for our main export products are at historic lows, despite September 11th and despite Argentina.”

Far Horizons of Policy
On the social side, the government has cut the defense budget by 15% and is reallocating resources towards education and health. A donor conference pledged loans and aid worth $1.8 billion. “That was the seal of approval for our social policies,” says Dañino. “We have brought social policies to the same level of importance as economic policies. That is new in Latin America.”

The prime minister says the government has reviewed its shortcomings and is embarking on a new stage. He wants to begin a process of consultation with political forces and civil society to build consensus around a series of policies that would ensure continuity even when governments change. Dañino aims at a 20-year horizon in policies for education and in mapping out the role of the state and the role of the armed forces.

“In the last 40 years we have changed policies radically every five years. So we have not had time for those policies to render any results. What we are aiming to do is to agree on something as a political class that we will persevere with.”

A full constitutional reform is also promised. A new draft constitution should appear in March 2002 and, after debate, could be ratified as early as August or September, says Dañino. “Peru will have a new constitution in 2002,” he says. “That will be the fruit of national dialog which is essential in a country where dialog has been so absent.” There must be a risk that debate could create even more uncertainty. But Dañino counters: “We hope not. The constitution needs to be changed. It is a question of who is going to lead that change.”

Modernizing government is another of the prime minister’s projects. He has set even government ministers management targets. The government has an anti-corruption czar and is trying to make the public sector more efficient, more transparent – including more e-government – and, very gradually, more decentralized. “We need to be aware of institutional fragility,” says Dañino.

The government has in its early days bumped up spending on social programs, much of it financed from donors’ resources. Dañino says, “This is a country which has 54% of its people living under the poverty line, on less than $3 a day. So that means that while private investment takes place and creates new jobs, we need to create temporary jobs which are productive.” The ‘A Trabajar’ program aims to generate 400,000 jobs in two years.

Improving Education
In education, the government is changing the promotion criteria for teachers, introducing a merit-based system with input from pupils’ parents. “Elsewhere it is a no-brainer. Here, the unions are reacting as if it were a revolution on the part of the government,” says Dañino. “But perhaps it is, because our aim is to improve the quality of education. Peru ranks above only Haiti in the quality of education in Latin America. Coverage we are okay, but quality – we are terrible. That is going to be the top priority for the government.”

From his position at the heart of Peruvian politics it can seem disingenuous for Dañino to continue insisting that he is not a politician. He says his job is “very exciting. If you are a bit of a masochist you may enjoy it.”

“I know that this is a political job. But I bring the component of professionalism,” he says, adding that his task is to keep focused, not distracted by the ever-present political noise, and to try to get Peru looking forward – not back to Fujimori, Montesinos and his videos. “Let’s drive the car looking ahead, not through the rear view mirror,” he says. “I have used that phrase a lot because we have been looking backwards too much.”