Pemex plans to sell $2bn-$3bn equivalent of bonds in the Mexican market, according to CFO Esteban Levin. The state-owned oil producer has recently requested approval for a MXP70bn 5-year shelf for local bonds. Total borrowing in 2009 should be $7.5bn-$10.5bn equivalent, Levin says. This would include including $1.5bn-$2.0bn from export credit agencies, $2.0bn-$2.5bn from bank loans, and possibly another $1bn in dollar bonds to follow $2bn placed in January. The net debt load should increase $2.5bn-$3.0bn this year. Pemex has not given any indication of the timing of a first local issuance, to be 1-20 years in tenor. It will be led by Santander and other banks will be named later.
Category: Regions
Comerci Extends Standstill Period
Mexico’s Comerci has reached an agreement with four creditors to extend a standstill agreement past March 2 to March 23. Barclays, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Merrill Lynch have filed to sue the retailer in US court, but agreed in late January not to pursue their demands while Comerci restructures debt. Comerci says it continues negotiating with creditors, without offering additional detail. The retailer filed for bankruptcy last year following a derivatives-induced cash squeeze that left the company with no resources to meet debt obligations. It is advised by Rothschild and Credit Suisse.
Colombia Oil Firm Plans Debt Bonanza
Colombian state oil company Ecopetrol says it plans to sell up to $8.1bn in bonds, its first public debt placement for over 10 years. Issuance could happen in the international or domestic markets, and proceeds are earmarked for funding investments over the next three years. “The value of the company would be optimized with debt,” Julio Torres, a former head of Colombian public credit and ex-Ecopetrol board member, tells LatinFinance. Torres, whose firm Nexus focuses on infrastructure advisory, adds that, in addition to funding investment, Ecopetrol could also pay dividends to shareholders, thus providing the government with income. The company has no financial debt, according to Fitch, which rates Ecopetrol BB+, in line with the sovereign. Torres says a sizeable international bond issue would be possible this year if the right window opens up, though he adds that the company has a lot of cash and is not in desperate need of funds. The ex-banker notes recent successful deals from state oil companies Petrobras and Pemex, and also a $1bn issue of 7.375% 2019 bonds sold by Colombia that drew $3bn in demand. Ecopetrol said late last year that by the end of 2009, it may try to get up to $1bn in financing. However, besides the fact that that it would be bringing a maiden issue with no reference point, credit markets remain extremely hostile – especially to high yield – and the oil price is little help. Ecopetrol does not indicate timing for issuance. It plans to invest some $60bn between 2009-2015 in exploration, extraction and other activities. Ecopetrol is 89.9% owned by the Colombian government. Its blowout October 2007 local equity issue raised more than $3.3bn equivalent, but an international placement was put on ice. Bancolombia led the local offering and Credit Suisse and JPMorgan were slated for the international portion. Merrill Lynch and Citi were valuation advisors.
HSBC Sees LatAm Outperformance
HSBC expects relative strong LatAm performance, but sees risks of further deterioration. “We expect parts of Asia, the Middle East and Latin America to continue to outperform Western economies, but to be constrained by the global downturn,” says the bank in its 2008 annual report, released Monday. “The possibility of a combined credit crunch and stagflation in Latin America cannot be ruled out,” it adds, noting the potential for more contraction in availability of credit, as well as increased likelihood of bankruptcies and unemployment. HSBC made a $2.037bn pre-tax profit in LatAm last year, a 6.5% decline versus 2007. Slight increases in Brazil and Argentine business helped mitigate the impact of declines in Mexico, Panama and elsewhere. The region accounts for 21.9% of the 12-month gain, up from 9.0% the previous year. In global banking and markets, HSBC made $641m pre-tax profit from LatAm, up 24% versus 2007. Total LatAm assets dropped 3.1% to $97.944bn, 3.9% of the global total. HSBC notes that LatAm corporate and commercial lending rose by 20% last year, driven by higher lending in Brazil as a result of strong growth in the trade loans portfolio and working capital products.
HSBC Notes Impaired Loan Spike
HSBC’s impaired LatAm loans increased 37% last year to $2.3bn, fueled by a 32% jump in Mexico, largely in credit cards driven by portfolio growth in personal lending, seasoning and higher delinquency rates. The bank says it has clamped down on underwriting, collection and customer acquisition, but says Mexico was also hit by credit quality deterioration among SMEs as the economy weakened. In Brazil, impaired loans rose by 34% due to growth in personal lending, deterioration in payroll and vehicle finance loan portfolios, and weakness in a number of real estate portfolios and corporates exposed to the sharp rise in the value of the US dollar in the second half of the year, says HSBC. The increase was less than last year, when LatAm new loan impairment charges rose by 63% to $2.0bn.
Peru Seen Trimming Quarter Point
Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch both expect Peru’s central bank to cut rates by 25bp to 6.0% at its March 5 meeting. “Increased evidence of a sharp activity slowdown, together with global easing, set the path for lower policy rates,” says Merrill. “However, still-high inflation, modestly lower inflation expectations and the PES slide grant a cautious pace versus other LatAm banks,” it adds. Goldman expects inflation to moderate in the months ahead and for the economy’s deceleration to become more visible. Inflation stands at 6.53%, according to the central bank. While Goldman forecasts the rate to drop to 5.0% by June, Merrill Lynch expects loosening to 4.0% by year-end.
Farac II Failure Surprises Banobras
Bids for Mexico’s Paquete del Pacifico tollroad (Farac II) auction were few and far between, causing some consternation for the government. “Without a doubt there was some surprise about the big differences [in the bids,]” Alonso Garcia Tames, director of Banobras, which is running the process, tells LatinFinance. The high profile follow-up to the Calderon administration’s MXP40bn 2007 Farac I, drew meager bids from just 2 interested parties Friday, and was scrapped. Offers from Mexican operators ICA and IDEAL fell short of the minimum. IDEAL bid MXP6.77bn for one concession in the package, while ICA proposed a much smaller MXP2.54bn. The government’s target price was not disclosed. Bidders were asked to offer a value for one of the new concessions, while the winner would be awarded the entire package, assuming all maintenance and construction costs. The total was estimated most recently at around MXP35bn. Banobras officials said late January they were confident there would be lots of competition and plenty of pricing tension at auction. Three Spanish participants in the final round – OHL, Iridium and Globalvia – offered only apologies for not bidding. Garcia says the past week’s poor global market performance likely led bidders to revise downwards projections for tollroad usage, while also raising estimates for cost of construction and maintenance. Bankers away from the process wonder if ICA even wanted to bid, given its low offer. ICA officials did not return calls seeking comment.
Pemex Lists Local Bond Shelf
Pemex has applied to Mexican regulators for a 5-year MXP70bn program to sell bonds in the domestic market. The state-owned oil producer would issue fixed or floating-rate bonds at maturities of 1-20 years, according to documents filed with the Mexican Bolsa, which do not give any indications of timing or size. Santander has been identified as structuring agent and a bookrunner on a first issuance, with other banks able to be added later. Pemex sub-director of finance and treasury Mauricio Alazraki told LatinFinance last month that the state-owned oil company was considering a local markets issue this year, declining to state at what tenor or price. Mexico’s undersecretary for public credit Gerardo Rodriguez says the finance ministry is working with Pemex and state utility CFE on issuances that would serve to help open the market for corporates, noting that such AAA credits should expect 3-5 years tenor. Pemex has already tapped the dollar debt market this year, raising $2bn in 8% 2019 bonds priced to yield 8.25% in January, on about $6bn in demand. The issuer faces $19.4bn in 2009 investment needs and is set to increase its net indebtedness by $2.5bn-$3.0bn.
Caribbean Telecom Rings 2014
Fueling the LatAm high yield revival, Jamaican telecom Digicel has started a US/European roadshow to sell a $435m 2014 bond, despite rotten markets and negative ratings news. The telecom faces a highly challenging market and saw its 8.875% of 2015 cash bonds hit 67-69 after announcing the deal, according to a broker, who had it at 73-74 previously. The implied yield is 17%. The transaction through the Digicel Limited unit could price as soon as the end of the week, according to bankers on it. Citi, Credit Suisse and JPMorgan are managing the sale. Digicel wants to raise funds for working capital and the purchase of a $260m equity stake in its Digicel Central America unit, according to Moody’s, which rates the transaction B1. The agency views the equity purchase as “an effective stock buyback from the company’s main shareholder, Denis O’Brien.” Moody’s chopped its outlook on Jamaica-based Digicel’s B2 corporate rating to stable from positive because of the extra liabilities. It notes a reduced probability that the company’s adjusted debt/Ebitda leverage will fall below 4.0x over the rating horizon. Digicel’s February 2007 Triple C rated $1.4bn issue of 2015 cash and PIK notes was widely seen as hailing the end of boom times for LatAm issuers. From a par launch via Citi, the deal swiftly deteriorated – despite generating $7bn in orders – and was taken as a glaring sign that investors had too much cash and too little regard for risk. The Caribbean credit’s bond market comeback coincides with Cemex, which is expected to price a BB/BB+ benchmark-sized bond this week, likely paying a yield of 13%-15%. They are the first LatAm junk issuers since last July.
Colombia Accelerates Easing
Colombia’s BanRep has cut the monetary policy rate by 100bp to 8.0% and economists see more cuts ahead. The central bank says its decision was based on the drop in inflation, which has been falling for three consecutive months and stands at 7.18%. Another reason was a continued deceleration of the global and Colombian economy. Bulltick Capital, which correctly predicted 100bp when the consensus was for 50bp, says that the bank will likely continue making 50bp reductions until 7.0%. After that, Bulltick expects two 25bp cuts. The fall was in line with Goldman Sachs’ call for 75bp and 100bp. The shop says easing may continue if the economy continues to contract at a fast pace, if inflation data improves this month and if the COP remains stable in the next 4 weeks. “We expect the bank to drive the policy rate down to a below neutral range of around 5.0%-5.5% by the third quarter of 2009, with risk tilted towards an even lower policy rate level of 4.0%-5.0% . . . if recession lasts all first quarter and threatens to extend into the second quarter,” the shop says.
